Waltham, MA 20 December 2006 - Global Insight, the world's leading company for economic and financial analysis and forecasting, today released the third quarter update of the Housing Valuation Analysis, which shows the incidence of overvaluation in the nation's housing market is declining, pushed down by falling house prices.
Single-family house prices moved up in the third quarter by 1.5 percent, the slowest pace of acceleration since the fourth quarter of 1994. Compared with the same time last year, they have moved ahead by a healthy 6 percent. Seventy-six metro market areas, accounting for 24 percent of all single family real estate assets in the nation, experienced price declines in the quarter. The declines were concentrated in the industrial Midwest, New England and California. As a result, the incidence of overvaluation in 317 of the nation's metro areas examined in the analysis is declining.
Markets identified in the study as over-valued decreased to 63 in the third quarter from 66 metro areas in the second quarter. As it has for the past several quarters, the greatest incidence of overvaluation continues to exist along the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts and, to a lesser extent, the Gulf Coast. New England, however, no longer appears to be significantly overvalued, and San Francisco, Las Vegas, Tampa, and Washington, DC fell below the threshold denoting extreme overvaluation. Meanwhile, Texas, which did experience above-average price increases in the latest quarter, continues to have the highest concentration of under-valued markets in the nation.
Overall during the third quarter, the number of single family housing units deemed to be overvalued dropped from 21 percent to 17 percent of the total number of single family housing units. In terms of single family asset value, the percent deemed to be over-valued fell to 33 percent from 39 percent in the prior quarter.
Although its level of overvaluation declined slightly during this period, Naples, Fla., remains the most over-valued market in the country (91.1 percent). Meanwhile, Dallas, and College Station-Bryan, Tex., tied for the most undervalued markets (21.0 percent), though home prices rose in both markets.
Jeannine Cataldi, senior economist and manager of Global Insight's Real Estate Service, stated that "Price appreciation continues to be most robust in those parts of the country that arrived late to the housing boom. Elsewhere, flat to declining prices have reduced the extent of over-valuation."
The Housing Valuation Analysis, a joint effort by Global Insight and National City Corporation, examines the top 317 U.S. real estate markets, or 91 percent of the single family housing market, to determine what home prices should be, controlling for differences in population density, relative income levels, interest rates, and historically observed market premiums or discounts. Markets with valuation premiums above 34 percent were deemed at risk for price corrections based on the typical degree of overvaluation that preceded the 63 known local market price declines observed since 1985.
The Housing Valuation Analysis combines a statistical model originally developed at National City Corporation with data largely developed at Global Insight. More information is available at www.globalinsight.com/housingvaluation or at www.nationalcity.com/housevaluation.
About National City Corporation
Jeannine Cataldi, Sr.Economist, Mgr Real Estate Srv, Global Insight
Jim Dorsey, Global Insight Media Relations
National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC), headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, is one of the nation's largest financial holding companies. The company operates through an extensive banking network primarily in Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri and Pennsylvania, and also serves customers in selected markets nationally. Its core businesses include commercial and retail banking, mortgage financing and servicing, consumer finance and asset management. For more information about National City, visit the company's Web site at www.NationalCity.com.
About Global Insight
Global Insight, Inc. (http://www.globalinsight.com/) is a privately held company that brought together the two most respected economic information companies in the world, DRI and WEFA. Global Insight provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions, and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data, and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political, and operational factors. The company has over 3,800 clients in industry, finance, and government with revenues in excess of $80 million, over 600 employees, and 23 offices in 13 countries covering North and South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
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